Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 29.979954 33.479782 37.524321 42.621187 48.989911 56.856470 67.603592
2025-03-23 24.965360 29.305558 34.792631 42.504492 53.566220 69.831149 97.970049
2025-03-30 21.754238 26.428309 32.728000 42.353807 57.856783 84.753466 145.666720
2025-04-06 19.238916 23.919938 30.514278 41.223407 60.113018 97.997963 212.430725
2025-04-13 18.214787 23.233989 30.667287 43.644556 69.353567 132.937341 469.480644
2025-04-20 16.794983 21.751962 29.319243 43.149890 72.795372 159.007665 1054.185318
2025-04-27 15.799617 20.761012 28.559566 43.478046 78.222075 200.798313 8716.161209
2025-05-04 15.001172 19.968838 27.987060 43.995468 84.479610 262.808985 NaN
2025-05-11 14.258349 19.180405 27.299723 44.105323 89.844090 344.036467 NaN
2025-05-18 13.500037 18.295039 26.327933 43.395999 92.515591 428.147935 NaN
2025-05-25 12.950743 17.700376 25.801040 43.554904 98.296977 606.517670 NaN
2025-06-01 12.398475 17.055706 25.108878 43.192811 102.195222 851.924819 NaN
2025-06-08 11.861604 16.407760 24.362498 42.608938 105.276946 1250.391218 NaN
2025-06-15 11.380895 15.823754 23.683975 42.079439 108.518393 2072.047353 NaN
2025-06-22 10.966289 15.325855 23.124941 41.756099 112.733368 4765.416586 NaN
2025-06-29 10.500069 14.712036 22.289239 40.580028 112.229480 9650.301408 NaN
2025-07-06 10.413866 14.749671 22.736204 42.903108 132.609077 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 10.072273 14.317115 22.198221 42.407926 136.560639 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.826363 14.040519 21.955563 42.720384 146.615737 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.612514 13.808838 21.785298 43.219999 159.321704 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.381611 13.533791 21.500981 43.325433 169.696987 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.105860 13.164130 20.988734 42.636320 172.553660 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 8.909022 12.929939 20.751223 42.790381 184.470939 NaN NaN